The Buyer's Market Nobody Showed Up For

Nov 2

Sellers now outnumber buyers by 63 percent, the biggest gap in at least 13 years. Rates just eased for the first time in weeks. So why is everyone still sitting on the sidelines, and should you be?

Here is a stat that should stop you mid scroll. For every 100 buyers in the housing market right now, there are about 163 sellers. That is the widest gap Redfin has ever recorded since they started counting in 2013.

Think about what that means. The number of active buyers just fell to the lowest level on record, around 929,000 nationwide. Meanwhile 1.5 million sellers are sitting on the market, the most since March 2020. Forty one of the 50 biggest metro areas in the country are now officially buyer's markets.

On paper, this is the most buyer-friendly setup in over a decade. So why does nobody feel like celebrating?

The market is on sale and the store is empty

A Redfin economist put it perfectly. This is a buyer's market born out of caution, not strength. Buyers did not gain the upper hand because conditions got easy. They gained it because so many other buyers got priced out or scared off that the ones still standing have the whole aisle to themselves.

High prices did that. The median U.S. home now runs about $407,000, up around 3 percent from a year ago and nearly 20 percent higher than five years ago. Rates did that too. After starting 2026 near 6 percent, the 30 year fixed climbed all year and hit a 2026 high of 7.40 percent in mid October.

And then last week, a crack of daylight. Freddie Mac's latest survey showed the 30 year fixed easing to 7.32 percent, a one month low, right as the Fed held rates steady at its late October meeting. It is not a fire sale. But after months of nothing but up, down matters.

One thing before you screenshot that number. It is a national survey average, and it lags. Freddie Mac's weekly figure reflects loans that were locked days before it ever hits a headline, so by the time you read it, the live market has already moved, sometimes up, sometimes down. And an average is exactly that, the middle of millions of very different loans. Your actual rate is built from your credit score, your down payment, your loan type, your property type, and a dozen other factors. Two buyers can walk into the same lender on the same day and leave with two different rates, and both can be priced correctly. So if your quote lands above or below the number in the news, nothing is wrong. The average tells you which way the wind is blowing. It was never going to tell you your rate.

What leverage actually looks like right now

If you have the budget and the job stability to buy, you are holding cards that buyers have not held in years.

You can be picky. Homes are sitting close to two months on average nationally, and sellers know it. You can negotiate hard on price, closing costs, repairs, even rate buydowns paid by the seller. You can walk away, because unlike 2021, there is another house behind this one. And asking prices recently dropped to their lowest level in a year, which tells you sellers have finally stopped pricing like it is still the pandemic frenzy.

In the hottest buyer's markets, sellers outnumber buyers by more than two to one. Buyers there are naming their terms.

Now the honest part about the Region

Those two to one markets? Miami. Nashville. Houston. Tampa. The national buyer's market is a Sun Belt story, driven by years of heavy building in Texas and Florida that finally outran demand.

The Midwest is a different animal. We never overbuilt here. Inventory in Northwest Indiana is better than it was two years ago, and buyers absolutely have more breathing room and more negotiating power than they did. But a well priced home in a good school district in Lake or Porter County still moves. Redfin's own data shows the handful of remaining seller's markets are in supply-starved metros like ours in character, where prices are still climbing around 6 percent while the oversupplied markets sit flat.

Translation. You have leverage here. You just do not have Florida leverage. Price your offers accordingly and do not expect a Miami discount on a Crown Point ranch.

So is now a good time to buy?

Redfin's chief economist says yes, if you can afford it. I would sharpen that. Now is a good time to buy if the math works for your life, because the market has quietly handed you three things at once. More homes to choose from than any point since 2020. Sellers who have adjusted their expectations. And a rate that just ticked down for the first time in weeks.

Waiting for the perfect rate is how people missed the last window. Remember, everyone waiting on the sidelines is your future competition. If rates slide further, those 929,000 buyers will have company fast, and your leverage shrinks with every one of them who comes back.

Here is the play. Get fully preapproved now so you can move when the right house hits. Shop your rate, because in a market this volatile the spread between lenders is real money. And negotiate like a buyer who knows the numbers, because now you do.

At SouthShore we run your scenario across more than 57 investors to find the rate and structure that fits, and we will tell you straight if waiting actually serves you better. No pressure, just math.

Thinking about making a move while the leverage is on your side? Start at teamstojo.com or give me a call. Let's look at your numbers together.

Ed Stojancevich

SouthShore Region Mortgage Group

NMLS 368666

219.301.1220

ed@southshoreregion.com

teamstojo.com